Priced Out of the Australian Property Market? Why the Next 12 Months Could Be Your Best Buying Opportunity
- Kevin Leong
- Jul 15
- 4 min read
By Kevin Leong, CPA. Finance Broker and Director, Lendcap Finance Advisory.
Only 53% of homes sold at auction last weekend. Nearly half did not sell at all.
That sounds like bad news. Most people will read it that way.
I read it differently. After 18 years arranging finance for Australian property buyers, a clearance rate this low tells me one thing: this is the best buyer window since 2019. Here is why.
What a Low Clearance Rate Really Means
A clearance rate does not measure how many people want to buy. It measures how many sellers got the price they wanted, on one specific day.
When that number drops into the low 50s, three things happen.
Sellers get realistic: owners who genuinely need to sell stop waiting for last year's price. They adjust to today's market.
Passed in homes become negotiations: if a home does not sell at auction, it is not gone. It moves to private sale. There, you set the pace, not the auctioneer.
Conditions come back: finance clauses, longer settlements and real conversations about price. All the things a hot market strips away.
None of this shows up in one weekend's number. It shows up over months, in who else turns up to the open home, and how much room you get to negotiate.
A Quiet Change That Works in Your Favour
The last Federal Budget made a change that has not made many headlines.
From 1 July 2027, negative gearing will only apply to new builds. Existing investment properties are grandfathered, but new purchases are not.
Why does this matter to you? Established houses and units, the homes first home buyers and upgraders compete for, are exactly where investors are being pushed away from.
Fewer investors bidding at your price point means less competition, right where you need it. This will not show up overnight. It will build over the next twelve months.
The 2027 CGT Change and Why It Brings More Homes to Market
Parliament passed a capital gains tax reform in late June.
From 1 July 2027, the flat 50% discount that property investors have used since 1999 changes. It is replaced with an inflation based discount, plus a minimum 30% tax on any growth from that date onward.
Gains investors have already made are not affected. Only future growth is. But people do not always wait to read the fine print. Many long term owners, including a lot of baby boomers sitting on decades of untaxed gains, are likely to bring forward their selling plans over the next year rather than risk the new rules.
What that means for you: more homes coming to market, from sellers who genuinely want to sell, in a market where you already have more negotiating power than you have had in years.
The window is the next twelve months. Getting ready is how you use it.
Keep the Family Home in the Family
One strategy is working well for our Melbourne clients right now, and it does not involve the open market at all.
Parents sell the family home directly to their adult child.
Done properly, everyone benefits. Parents free up decades of equity for retirement, without agent fees or auction stress. Their child secures a home they may otherwise be priced out of, with a loan structure the banks are comfortable approving.
It does take the right steps: independent valuations, and careful attention to stamp duty, tax and Centrelink rules for the parents. We handle the finance and work alongside your accountant and solicitor to get the rest right. With the CGT changes now locked in, more families are starting this conversation earlier.
It Is Rarely You. It Is Usually the Lender Match.
Most people who feel priced out have actually just been knocked back. Those are two very different things.
Over 18 years and $271 million in facilities arranged for more than 125 clients, the pattern I see most often is simple: a good borrower, matched to the wrong lender's rules.
Professionals in eligible occupations can often skip lenders mortgage insurance with a smaller deposit.
Contractors are often assessed as if their income is unstable. The right lender, shown the right paperwork, sees it differently.
Self employed borrowers are the group I see let down most. A proper review of your financials, done with a CPA's eye, often finds borrowing power a standard bank check misses.
Overseas based permanent residents are told buying from abroad is too hard. It is not, with the right broker running the process.
None of these are the real problem. Finding the right lender is.
What to Do in the Next Twelve Months
Here is the pattern, laid out simply.
Buyers have more negotiating power than they have had since 2019.
Investors are being nudged away from the established homes you are competing for.
A wave of genuine sellers is likely over the next year, ahead of the CGT changes.
The buyers who win in a market like this are not the boldest. They are the ones who get their finance sorted before they walk into an inspection, not after.
If you have felt priced out of the property market over the past few years, this might be your window. Find out exactly where you stand.
Lendcap, Melbourne's CPA led mortgage and finance brokerage, accredited with 20+ lenders.
General Advice Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or needs. It should not be considered financial, tax, or legal advice. You should seek professional advice tailored to your individual circumstances before making any financial decisions.
To understand what options may be suitable for your situation, book a consultation with Lendcap today.
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